Hi everyone,
a sign of life for those who are still subscribed here at substack. I hope you all are doing well. For me, time is scarce now with 2 children (3 years, 10 months) and founding a company with 3 colleagues in parallel, but I am nonetheless active in the stocks market and enjoying my hobby.
Going forward, I will only post short snapshots and maybe a few points what I like and don’t like about stocks I see or own.
Let’s start and keep it really short this time, to get my write blockage out of the way.
Topic: Stocks form Poland.
Macro view
Poland is one of the cheapest markets in terms of PB and Shiller-CAPE. That got me interested a while ago and of course noticing some well performing fintwit darlings such as Dino Polska, Livechat and Auto Partners.
Sources:
https://twitter.com/NorbertKeimling/status/1687444924797460480?s=20
Snapshots from stratosphere.io
Most of my numbers from tikr.com
Some charts from marketscreener.com
Spyrosoft
$SPR.WA is a typical IT and software development company, main customers are in the automotive sector. Insider ownership at 82%. Nice webpage in English with all information you need.
What makes SPR special is their enormous growth in the last years with around >50% pa in the last 5 years. As expected growth has come down in the last quarters. Going forward there is still concern, if IT spending picks up again or stays at lower levels.
Bottom line: for reasonable multiples you get a (former?) growth star.
Synektik
$SNT.WA for me came out of nowhere. SNT provides machines as well as IT services in the healthcare sector in Poland, mainly radiology. I need to dig deeper on that one, there seem to be political benefits trying to improve certain medical procedures, mainly in oncology. Thats where their main business is and where they have successfully sold several of their flagship “davinci” robots incl. service contracts.
So for around EV/EBITDA of 6 you get this “surprise box”, as I said, I have no deeper knowledge so far, apart from the last reports.
Votum
$VOT.WA is a law firm in Poland.
Apart from regular consultation and car accidents, Votum seems to be THE go to address for lots and lots of strange contracts, where the liability was taken in Swiss Francs (CH) against the Zloty. There are thousands of these in Poland and Votum regularly wins these cases, taking a small up-front and a percentage fee.
Management is confident, that these contracts will remain in the coming years.
Bottom line: Votum is too cheap at this stage, hoping for a double. PE only at 5-6
Asseco (South Eastern Europe)
$ASE.WA ticks severals boxes I like. IT consulting and products for banking and compliance in (south) eastern europe. They actively expand in new countries which results in some losses, but they have a profitable core and a great history.
has a nice writeup on his blog.A pretty little company at a nice price, with hopefully a long runway to go.
Woodpecker
$WPR.WA is a tiny new tech company (33M $) and has a promising SaaS Sales/CRM solution called Woodpecker. They increased their customers quickly at first, but are now seeing some headwinds and slightly falling monthly recurring revenue.
For me personally I would wait for the growth to continue or the valuation to come down a little. But still something to keep an eye on or for people who buy a “potential x-bagger basket”.
Benefit Systems
$BFT.WA is a provider of employee benefit cards, to be more precise cards for fitness clubs. They seem to have struck a nerve as they onboarded more and more customers and were able to grow quickly and profitable (in their core, new countries not yet).
I exited recently because I noticed stagnating customer numbers hidden in recent IR material and because the stock has risen a lot to a more rich valuation.
For me a “hold” or a watch, but still an amazing story they have written so far.
Ambra
$AMB.WA is all about alcoholic beverages in eastern Europe, especially sparkling wine. Considering the valuation compared to peers, you get a very stable company at a fraction of the price.
That’s all there is to know, a very boring company in a positive way, that just delivers.
Auto Partner
$APR.WA should be widely known as there a lot of writeups around. Auto Partner (and their competitor Inter Cars) are the market leaders for auto spare parts. Their growth story has also been amazing so far. Valuation is still ok, profitability/margins are expected to fall in the coming quarters. Still, they grow nicely at 20% and quietly push their stock price higher and higher.
Similar to Ambra, a very reliable and boring company.
Further ideas:
Dino Polska, Livechat, XTB, Toya, Mo-Bruk
Thanks for reading, all the best
https://www.buymeacoffee.com/raynar81